Economists: benefit is minimal
However, Lithuanian economists do not believe, that the lottery will bring tangible benefits to the state treasury. “Check lottery is aimed only at unaccounted trade turnover. But most of “shadows” in Lithuania - salaries in envelopes and smuggling. Here the check lottery is powerless, but in the area of unrecorded trade may help a little. I don't think, that it will be possible to reduce unaccounted sales by 10%, at least in the first year, but these 300 000 euro will definitely pay off. And probably, can get 1-2 million. additional taxes”, - said the senior economist of Swedbank Nerijus Machiulis before the launch of the lottery.
Vice President of the Lithuanian Free Market Institute Vytautas Zukauskas says, that a check lottery can have only a very small effect on stabilizing the shadow economy, reports “Lithuanian courier”.
“Most people, who buy goods from illegal or legal suppliers, who do not keep records of income, want to buy cheaper goods from them. In many cases, this is a kind of oral agreement.”, - says Zhukauskas.
According to the analyst, this treaty indicates, what if even the buyer knows, who buys an illegal service, however it is cheaper. “This is such a kind of contract, that no check lottery will ever break”, - the expert is convinced.
Lithuanian catering emerged from the shadows
For the first seven months of the check lottery in Lithuania, compared to the same period 2017 year and taking into account the overall growth of VAT in the country, in the catering sector, about 2,4 million euros VAT, reported by the State Tax Inspectorate (GNI).
Check lottery, as calculated in Vilnius, only in the catering sector can it bring additional 7,5 million. Results will be known by the end of the year, when the tax office calculates its income.
In just seven months in Lithuania, 370 weekly and 8 monthly prizes, most of the checks come from catering establishments. “This year catering establishments are one of the priority areas of STI activity, so we can assume, what observable “Effect” check lottery shows an increase in the consciousness of residents and their desire to participate in the reduction of the scale “shady” the economy”, - said the head of the project Rolandas Puncevičius.
“Next year we will be able to assess, how the check lottery affected the markets. Since most of the people working there work for themselves, they will submit declarations for 2018 year only in spring 2019 years - then we can compare changes and trends 2018 and 2017 of the year”, - he thinks.